MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Both Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump are focused on Wisconsin. That's a swing state where Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin is locked in a tight race for reelection that could determine whether Democrats maintain their majority in the Senate.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Baldwin says she has won in the past thanks in part to what she calls Trump-Tammy voters, who voted for the Republican presidential candidate, but also for her.
TAMMY BALDWIN: They see that I've showed up, I've listened and that I've taken their fight to Washington, and I've produced results.
INSKEEP: The question is whether she can rely on them in 2024.
MARTIN: Joining us now to talk about these dynamics is Wisconsin Public Radio's Anya van Wagtendonk. Anya, thank you so much for joining us.
ANYA VAN WAGTENDONK, BYLINE: Good morning.
MARTIN: So let me set the table here. Baldwin won her last race in 2018 by 11 points, and things look very different this time around. Why so different?
VAN WAGTENDONK: Yeah. That outcome was really an unheard-of landslide by Wisconsin standards. Part of the change since then just has to do with sort of nitty-gritty politics. So previous Republican challengers had nasty primary fights. This time around, her opponent, Eric Hovde, avoided that, and so he started with a pretty clean slate. But then part of it is also just the realities of partisan politics. Those have gotten more entrenched everywhere in the country. And so in Wisconsin, which is about as 50/50 as it gets, you're seeing people just go into their camps.
Baldwin has always run as a different kind of Democrat, really a workhorse who just knows Wisconsin, and she's done really well with independents and even in counties that also support Trump as a result. But this time around, Hovde is closely aligned with Trump, and that plus that ever-growing polarization means Baldwin is expecting many fewer Trump-Tammy voters.
MARTIN: Can you just tell us a bit more about those Trump-Baldwin counties? What are you seeing there?
VAN WAGTENDONK: Yeah. I spent a day out on the trail with Baldwin, including a stop in Richland County, which is an example of this. It's a rural county that went for Trump in his past two elections and for Baldwin in her last two elections. Other Democrats, including Kamala Harris., are focused just on losing those kinds of rural areas by less. But Baldwin has this record she can point to that's really focused on things like manufacturing and the dairy industry, and that makes her stand out out there. I think we're seeing some of that shared strategy across the blue wall states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Michigan - not writing off those areas. And when I was out there, so was Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. I asked him what he made of all the pro-Trump yard signs nearby.
JOSH SHAPIRO: Senator Baldwin and I show up in communities like this, and we treat voters with respect, no matter what signs might be on a neighbor's lawn or what past election results have shown.
MARTIN: OK. Finally, Anya, tell us the kinds of messages you're seeing in the final few weeks of this campaign.
VAN WAGTENDONK: Yeah. The Baldwin campaign has really sought to paint Hovde as a wealthy outsider. He's from Wisconsin, but he also has a home in California, and he manages a bank that's based in Utah, so they're really focused on drawing that contrast. And then Hovde is trying to tie Baldwin to the Biden White House and its economic policies. Recently, too, we've been seeing a lot more ads that are kind of based in the culture wars - so attacking her approach to transgender issues, for example. And both parties are also just focused on the national stakes of this election and, of course, control of Congress.
MARTIN: That is Wisconsin Public Radio's Anya van Wagtendonk. Anya, Thank you.
VAN WAGTENDONK: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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