It’s almost inevitable in governor’s races in New Hampshire.
At some point, the Republican nominee argues that electing the Democrat would mean higher taxes. The Democratic candidate counters that electing the Republican nominee to the corner office would put abortion rights at grave risk.
That familiar dynamic is very much at play in this year’s race for New Hampshire governor, which pits Democrat Joyce Craig against Republican Kelly Ayotte.
There are other areas of dispute, including Craig’s record as mayor of Manchester and Ayotte’s service on lucrative corporate boards following her 2016 U.S. Senate reelection loss.
But with less than a month until Election Day, both candidates appear locked in on their chosen issues and are largely talking past each other — and spending less time on issues of most concern to voters, like housing and the broader economy.
“The race is static, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that a lot of Americans in general — and not just in New Hampshire — are in their corners and they are not seeming to be changing their minds too much,” said Neil Levesque, who directs St. Anselm College’s New Hampshire Institute of Politics, which has had the governor’s race in a virtual tie in recent weeks.
Here’s rundown on where this race stands — and some major points of friction.
Abortion rights
While abortion has been a prominent political issue in New Hampshire for decades, two more recent events supercharged local debate around the issue: a 2022 state law that limited almost all abortions here after 24 weeks, and the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling that struck down the federal right to abortion.
The combination also prompts a consistent response from Ayotte on the campaign trail when it comes to discussing state abortion policy.
"I’m not going to change this law, and I will be happy to use the veto pen if somebody sends me a law that’s more restrictive on their rights,” Ayotte promises in a campaign ad.
While Ayotte’s pledge to fight further restrictions on reproductive rights aligns with messaging adopted by many Republicans this year, she has been prominent in national anti-abortion circles for years.
As New Hampshire attorney general nearly two decades ago, Ayotte sought to overturn a federal court ruling that struck down a state law requiring parents be notified before their daughter received an abortion. The fight went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court.
After she left the attorney general’s office to run for U.S. Senate, Ayotte received the strong support of anti-abortion groups. Once elected, Ayotte’s voting record validated their endorsements: She backed a national ban on abortions after 20 weeks, and regularly voted to defund Planned Parenthood.
While Ayotte argues her past stances and affiliations are immaterial to her run for governor, Craig — who’s proposing an array of policies to boost abortion access — is working hard to keep them center stage.
“Kelly Ayotte has spent her entire career attacking reproductive health care,” Craig emphasized during the candidate’s first debate last month.
Taxes
Taxes is one issue on which Ayotte is playing offense.
“If Joyce Craig makes it to the corner office, we can kiss the New Hampshire Advantage goodbye,” Ayotte argued during that same debate.
While Ayotte promises to fight any proposed tax increase as governor, and Craig vows to veto any general sales or income tax, the former Manchester mayor does want to end the scheduled repeal of the state’s tax on interest and dividend income.
“We are losing $160 million as a result of that,” Craig said as she campaigned in Concord recently.
Ayotte has jumped on that proposal, arguing the change will hurt retirees. She’s also running ads claiming Craig sought a city-specific sales tax in Manchester, and that Craig repeatedly adopted budgets that exceeded the city’s tax cap as mayor.
Craig, as a school board member before she was elected mayor, did once present the idea of a city sales tax as part of a range of ideas she had heard from constituents. But she never endorsed such a proposal herself. And in any case, such a tax would be impermissible without a change to state law.
Some city budgets on Craig’s watch as mayor did spend beyond Manchester’s tax cap. But due to supermajority votes on the city’s Board of Aldermen, Craig lacked the power to stop them.
Manchester’s image
The issues of crime, drugs, and homelessness in Manchester are another persistent critique levied by Ayotte against Craig.
Ayotte has lodged these attacks as she campaigns — statewide and in Manchester — and hammers home the point during sometimes graphic tv ads.
Sometimes Ayotte has oversold the image of Manchester being lawless on Craig’s watch, such as when she pulled an ad that falsely said a murder occurred in the city "under Joyce Craig," when in fact it took place before she was mayor.
Craig meanwhile points to statistics that show Manchester’s crime and overdose rates improved under her leadership. But Ayotte’s criticism goes beyond statistics.
It also takes aim at Craig for her opposition to policies to require local police to assist in federal immigration enforcement.
“I would support a ban on sanctuary cities,” Ayotte stressed during a debate last month. “We are not going to have policies like we see over in Massachusetts that are spending money on housing illegal immigrants.”
Craig has said she opposed a ban on so-called sanctuary policies when it was considered in Concord, because the policy was also opposed by Manchester’s chief of police, among other local law enforcement chiefs.
“I always do whatever I need to do to make sure our communities are safe,” Craig told the Nashua Chamber of Commerce.
Corporate Boards
Ayotte’s lucrative work serving on corporate boards is a recurrent target for Craig. Ayotte has made millions from board work since she left the U.S. Senate in 2017, including stints on NewsCorp, Boston Properties and Blink Health.
In particular, Craig has focused on Ayotte’s work for Blackstone, which she says contributed to the nation’s housing crisis. Craig has also alleged that other companies Ayotte has helped direct, including Caterpillar, shed jobs while she profited.
Fact-checkers have questioned some of specific criticisms of Ayotte’s record on this front, deeming an ad Craig and the state Democratic Party are running on the matter “half-true.” Democrats amended that ad this week, leaving claims about Ayotte’s board work intact, but removing a reference to BAE Systems, one of New Hampshire’s largest employers, whose board Ayotte chaired. The move prompted a fresh round of fighting and accusations of bad faith.
How persuasive any of these arguments end up being for voters remains to be seen. But given the tightness of this race — and the political environment — there is little to suggest either campaign will pivot much from their core arguments as Election Day nears.
“We’ll see in these final weeks if these campaigns try to find some sort of new special sauce, if you will, that can change voters’ minds, " said Levesque. “In the meantime, I think they stick to the proven issues that are winning for them, and you are going to see that on radio, television and online.”
